A Decline 3G/4G Users in Pakistan: Is the Shift to 5G to Blame?

The Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) has reported a decline in the number of 3G/4G users as well as penetration rates in December 2024. According to the data, the number of 3G/4G users dropped from 139.037 million in November to 138.496 million in December. This represents a significant decline in Next Generation Mobile Service (NGMS) penetration, which fell from 56.9% at the end of November to 56.58% by the end of December.

The total teledensity, a measure of the number of connections for every hundred individuals, also showed a slight decrease. It fell from 80.1% in November to 80% by the end of December 2024. Despite the decline in NGMS penetration, the overall number of cellular subscribers saw a marginal increase, growing from 193.238 million in November to 193.308 million in December.

Breakdown by Telecom Operators

The decline in 3G/4G users was not uniform across all telecom operators. Here’s a detailed breakdown:

1. Jazz:
   • Jazz’s 3G subscribers dropped to zero from 1.549 million in November. This sharp drop indicates the network’s decision to phase out its 3G services entirely.
   • Jazz 4G users also decreased slightly from 50.191 million in November to 50.061 million by the end of December.
2. Zong:
   • Zong’s 3G subscriber base fell from 1.867 million in November to 1.834 million in December.
   • However, Zong’s 4G users showed growth, increasing from 38.300 million to 38.552 million during the same period.
3. Telenor:
   • Telenor’s 3G subscriber base dropped from 1.388 million to 1.325 million.
   • Its 4G users remained constant at 25.428 million.
4. Ufone:
   • Ufone’s 3G users decreased from 2.047 million in November to 1.977 million by the end of December.
   • On the other hand, Ufone’s 4G users increased from 16.473 million to 16.541 million.

Reasons Behind the Decline

The decline in 3G/4G penetration and user numbers can be attributed to several factors:

1. Phasing Out of 3G Services:
   • Many telecom operators in Pakistan are focusing on transitioning users from 3G to 4G. Jazz’s complete removal of 3G services in December is a prime example. While this transition supports the adoption of advanced technologies, it may temporarily impact overall user numbers as customers adjust.
2. Economic Challenges:
   • Rising inflation and economic instability in Pakistan have made mobile internet services less affordable for some users. The high cost of smartphones and data plans could discourage new users and cause existing subscribers to reduce their usage.
3. Connectivity Issues in Rural Areas:
   • Inadequate infrastructure in rural and remote areas limits the expansion of 3G/4G services. Many potential users in these regions face connectivity barriers, slowing down overall growth.
4. Saturation in Urban Markets:
   • In urban areas, the market for 3G/4G services is nearing saturation, leaving limited room for further growth in subscriber numbers.
5. Migration to Alternative Technologies:
   • The growing availability of fibre broadband and 5G trials in certain areas may have diverted some users away from mobile internet, further contributing to the decline.

While the overall number of cellular subscribers in Pakistan continues to grow, the dip in 3G/4G penetration highlights the need for enhanced affordability, expanded coverage in underserved regions, and a smoother transition to modern technologies.

See Also: Latest PTA Report Exposes Jazz’s Poor Performance and Rising Customer Dissatisfaction