AI Could Impact 40% of Jobs Worldwide in the Next Decade, UN Warns
The future of work is undergoing a dramatic transformation, and artificial intelligence (AI) could be the driving force. A new report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warns that up to 40% of jobs worldwide could be affected by AI in the next decade. While AI promises productivity growth, it could also lead to significant job losses, particularly in low-cost labor markets, with developing countries at risk of being left behind in the race for AI dominance.
AI’s Impact on Jobs and Employment
The UN report outlines four primary ways AI could affect the global workforce: replacing human jobs, complementing human work, deepening automation, and potentially creating new roles, especially in AI research and development. However, as AI continues to advance, concerns rise about its potential to displace workers in industries where automation is rapidly replacing manual labor.
The concentration of AI development within a few large companies may reduce the competitive advantage of low-cost labor, particularly in developing countries. It’s crucial that we shift the focus from technology to people, ensuring that the benefits of AI are shared equitably across the globe.
-Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary-General of UNCTAD
The AI Divide: A Tale of Two Worlds
The report highlights the growing disparity between countries that are spearheading AI development and those that are not part of the conversation on its governance. AI’s market value is set to reach $4.8 trillion by 2033, but the beneficiaries of this growth remain highly concentrated. A mere 100 companies, most of which are based in the United States and China, account for nearly half of the world’s AI research and development spending.
These corporate giants, including Apple, NVIDIA, and Microsoft, control a market value that rivals entire continents. For example, their combined worth of $3 trillion is comparable to the economy of Africa. With such concentrated power, the potential for widening technological divides grows, leaving many developing nations vulnerable to missing out on the benefits of AI advancements.
The AI Future: Who’s Leading and Who’s Lagging
In terms of AI research and patent generation, the United States and China are clear leaders, accounting for one-third of peer-reviewed articles and two-thirds of AI patents. While the U.S. maintains an edge in digital technologies like AI, big data, and blockchain, China dominates in areas like 5G networks, drones, and solar photovoltaics.
Meanwhile, many countries from the Global South are not even part of the AI governance discussions, with 118 nations absent from key conversations about how to regulate and develop AI technologies.
The Road Ahead: Preparing for AI’s Impact on jobs Worldwide
As AI continues to evolve, the impact on the labor market will depend on how automation, augmentation, and the creation of new jobs interact. While AI may outperform older automation systems, it also has the potential to disrupt highly skilled positions. For countries to prepare for the so-called “fifth industrial revolution,” the UNCTAD report suggests that developing nations invest in reliable internet infrastructure, develop high-quality data sets for AI training, and build education systems that equip workers with the necessary digital skills.
To ensure AI benefits are shared equitably, the report recommends the establishment of a global AI facility that would provide equal access to tools and computing power for all nations, ensuring no one is left behind as AI reshapes the world of work.
In a rapidly changing landscape, the challenge for global policymakers will be to balance the promise of AI with its potentially disruptive effects on the workforce. The stakes are high, and the world must act fast to avoid deepening inequalities and to ensure AI contributes to the global good.
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