Pakistan’s Solar Shift: Why Rooftop Systems Are Becoming a Shield Against Rising Power Bills

Rooftop solar is becoming an increasingly attractive option for Pakistani households as high electricity tariffs, falling solar equipment costs and growing battery adoption encourage consumers to generate and use more of their own electricity.

A typical 10-kilowatt (kW) solar system can generate around 1,200 to 1,500 units of electricity per month, depending on location, weather, and seasonal conditions. For households with high electricity consumption, this can significantly reduce dependence on the national grid.

Industry estimates suggest consumers paying around Rs 45 to Rs 60 per unit can save tens of thousands of rupees each month by directly consuming the electricity generated by their solar panels.

How much does a 10kW solar system cost?

A 10kW system currently costs roughly Rs 1.5 million to Rs 2.2 million, depending on the panels, inverter, installation, and other equipment used. Based on prevailing electricity prices, the investment can potentially be recovered within around 2.5 to four years, although the actual payback period depends heavily on household consumption and how much solar power is used directly.

The financial case for rooftop solar is also being reshaped by changes to Pakistan’s net-metering regime.

Under traditional net metering, consumers use solar electricity for their own needs and export surplus generation to the grid in exchange for credits. However, under the shift towards net billing, exported electricity is compensated at a lower rate than the price consumers generally pay when purchasing electricity from the grid.

This makes self-consumption more valuable than exporting surplus electricity.

For example, a household generating electricity during daylight hours can maximize savings by running appliances, water pumps, and air conditioners when solar production is highest. Excess electricity can then be stored in batteries for use after sunset.

The change is gradually moving the market away from simply installing panels to reduce electricity bills and towards a broader solar-plus-storage model.

Batteries could become the next big trend

Pakistan’s residential solar market is increasingly seeing demand for larger battery energy storage systems (BESS), with consumers looking at systems in the 14–16 kWh range rather than relying solely on the grid for electricity after sunset.

Batteries allow households to store excess daytime solar generation and use it during evening hours, when solar production falls, but electricity demand often remains high.

They can also provide backup during power outages and reduce the amount of electricity purchased from the grid.

For consumers, the calculation is therefore changing: the value of a solar system increasingly depends not only on how much electricity it produces, but also on how much of that electricity the household can consume itself.

The rapid expansion of rooftop solar is also creating challenges for the country’s electricity system.

Combined generation from net-metered and off-grid solar systems is estimated at around 20,000 MW, contributing to a pronounced “duck curve” in electricity demand. Solar generation can sharply reduce demand from the national grid during daylight hours, while demand rises again when solar production declines.

Net-metering capacity alone reportedly grew nearly 37-fold in six years, reaching around 7,000 MW by June 2026.

The growth has been driven by several factors, including a roughly 75 per cent depreciation of the rupee, an almost 140pc increase in electricity tariffs, and a nearly 60pc decline in solar panel import prices between FY2021 and FY2025.

With electricity prices remaining high, rooftop solar is likely to remain attractive despite changes in the regulatory framework.

However, future returns will depend on electricity tariffs, solar equipment prices, export rates, and government policies. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) and the Power Division can also revise regulations governing net metering, net billing, and electricity exports.

For Pakistan’s consumers, the next phase of the solar boom may therefore be less about selling electricity to the grid and more about generating, storing, and consuming solar power at home.

For the government, the challenge will be to develop clear rules for batteries, grid integration, and safety while ensuring that the rapid growth of distributed solar does not create additional pressure on an already strained electricity system.