Smartphone Market Rebounds in 2024, Fueled by Android Growth

The global smartphone market is poised for significant growth in 2024, with shipments projected to increase by 6.2% year-over-year, reaching 1.24 billion units. This rebound follows two consecutive years of decline and is primarily driven by pent-up demand for device upgrades, particularly in emerging markets.

Android Dominance and iOS Resilience

Android-powered devices will be the primary catalyst for this growth, with a projected 7.6% year-over-year increase. This surge is concentrated in regions like Asia-Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and China, where affordable Android smartphones are gaining popularity. In contrast, iOS is expected to experience more modest growth of 0.4% in 2024.

Despite record-breaking performance in emerging markets like India, Apple faces challenges in major markets such as China, the US, and Europe. However, the tide may turn in 2025, with iOS projected to outpace Android growth by 3.1% to 1.7%, respectively.

Foldable Phones: A Niche Market with Potential

Foldable smartphones, while still a niche market, continue to garner attention and drive innovation. Despite a 7.4% decline in Q3 2023, foldables are expected to grow by 10.5% in 2024 and maintain a double-digit CAGR of 15.9% through 2028. However, the pace of growth is slowing down as Chinese vendors, the primary drivers of this segment, shift their focus and investments towards GenAI-powered smartphones.

The Impact of GenAI

While generative AI (GenAI) is a hot topic and a priority for many vendors, its immediate impact on smartphone demand remains limited. While GenAI has the potential to revolutionize the user experience, more investments are needed to raise consumer awareness and introduce compelling features that can drive significant upgrades.

In the short term, GenAI-powered smartphones are likely to be limited to premium flagship devices, gradually filtering down to more affordable price tiers. By 2028, GenAI-enabled devices are expected to account for 70% of the smartphone market.

As the smartphone market continues to evolve, the interplay between technological advancements, consumer preferences, and economic factors will shape its future trajectory.