Is Pakistan Ready for a 5G Rollout? A distant dream!

The anticipation of the 5G launch in Pakistan has been ongoing for years, with each government making claims of launching the next-generation technology in their respective tenures. Following in their footsteps, the incumbent caretaker minister of IT and telecom, Dr. Umar Saif, has also been making assertions about launching 5G in the near future. Recently, while addressing a Mobile Phone Summit, the minister talked about the opening of a 300 MHz band for a 5G auction in the upcoming months. Many believe that it could lead to the successful launch of 5G in Pakistan. However, if we scrutinize the technicalities related to launching 5G, it seems like a distant dream. Here are a few reasons to support our stance.

Pakistan Lags Far Behind in 5G Readiness:

Last year, the World Bank released its report on Telecommunications Advisory Assistance and the 5G Readiness Plan for Pakistan, in which it mentioned key recommendations that can help the country in launching 5G. However, till now, Pakistan hasn’t been able to implement those recommendations. These include,

1. The provision of large, affordable spectrum blocks is essential for effective 5G deployment.
2. Broader optical fiber access.
3. Widespread penetration of budget-friendly 5G smartphones.

Unfortunately, Pakistan lags far behind in all of these prerequisites for launching 5G. More importantly, the MOITT has to issue a policy directive for PTA to even start the process of 5G implementation. The current minister in charge of initiating the process has not been briefed about the technical reasons explained above. So only making a loud announcement will not bring 5G but real on-the-ground work needs to be done. One telecom expert believes that the minister, whose tenure may be ending in weeks, should refrain from making such tall claims.

In addition to the technical challenges that need to be addressed, there are some economic realities that should be taken into consideration. The capital-intensive telecom sector faces challenges with high-interest rates, a depreciating exchange rate, and rising business costs amid foreign exchange restrictions. Therefore, importing essential equipment for 5G  is a concern and requires a hefty investment. In addition, 5G device penetration in the country currently stands below 1 percent, requiring a substantial import of 5G smartphones. A conservative estimate suggests a cost of $1.75 billion, which is currently a significant portion of the current foreign exchange reserves. This economic reality that needs serious consideration has been conveniently ignored by not only the current but the previous IT ministers as well.

Populist narratives from IT ministers:

Since 2021, the previous minister for IT and telecom, Syed Amin ul Haque, has been making populist narratives about launching 5G in Pakistan. In 2021, the minister claimed that 5G would be launched by December 2022. Then again, in 2022, the minister gave a new date (July 2023) for the launch of 5G. However, we are in 2024 and far from launching 5G in the country. It appears now that the incumbent caretaker minister for IT and telecom is making similar populist claims of an imminent 5G launch without taking into account the intricacies attached to it.